ARTICLES MODERN

Carmakers will close one of the most tumultuous years and unhappy in their history Monday when they report what is sure to be another awful lot of monthly sales figures.
Each of the six largest automakers, including foreign and domestic brands, is expected to say that its sales in the United States dropped by at least 30 percent in December. Bleakest numbers most likely will come from General Motors and Chrysler, which has received two billion dollars in loans from the federal government, at the end of December to help them to remain solvent.
Above all, say that 2008 will end up like the worst year for sales of cars and trucks in 1992. But this comparison does not capture how quickly the business has deteriorated in recent months, as tight credit markets and consumer confidence has sunk.
“This is a kind of self recession which, quite frankly, many of us have never been through,” Erich Merkle, an automotive analyst in Grand Rapids, Mich., The consulting firm Crowe Horwath, said Sunday. “We know that people who lost jobs are in the market for a new car, but even those who have jobs are not in the market right now, because they are concerned if we have a job in three, six or nine months. ”

George Pipas, Ford Motor Company is the chief sales analyst, estimated total industry sales for 2008 of approximately 13.5 million, a full three million fewer than in 2007. Not since 1974 the market collapsed so much in one year, he said.

Analysts said the December sales rate probably would be even worse than the 26-year lows reached in October and November.

“And since the early 80 years, there are 70 million more people who can drive a vehicle,” Mr. Pipas told reporters during a briefing Friday. “So this is even worse than the per capita in 1982.”

Although high gas prices significantly affected the number and types of vehicles sold throughout much of 2008, the rapid decrease in prices recently has done little to help the industry rebound. Sales from September through November were 31 percent lower than the same period in 2007, even as gas prices plummeted 54 percent. Sales of sport utility vehicles, which used to generate huge profits for Detroit automakers were 51 percent.

Mr. Pipas said SUV outsold passenger cars and light trucks last year for the first time since 2000. Sudden shift in consumer buying habits have left automakers scrambling to build more cars and fewer trucks.

Ford is retooling three former truck factories so they can make compact and subcompact cars, Toyota now plans to make its hybrid Prius sedan in a new plant if it had intended to build SUV’s. Last month, the company said it will delay opening the plant market, because it is in decline.

“In târziu’90s, our assumption was that light trucks could continue, and would turn back,” said Mr. Pipas. Now, he added, “I do not think passenger cars will look back again.”

Sales of trucks and SUV was probably higher than in December in recent months, most likely even outselling cars, analysts said, but is primarily driven by large discounts on many models. The average value of incentives on the vehicle was almost $ 1000 higher than in December a year ago, but the truck growth was almost $ 1500, Mr. Pipas said. Full-size trucks money now reduced by an average of $ 7000 to $ 8000.

G.M. Last week began offering zero percent or low-rate loans on several vehicles in a bid to attract buyers who were scared of a lack of credit. Its lending arm, GMAC Financial Services, received 5 billion U.S. dollars of investment from the Department of Treasury and immediately reduced the minimum credit-scoring for the customers.

Edmunds.com, a Web site that offers car-buying advice to consumers, cited news that is an unusual flurry of inquiries on its website and at retailers in the last days of December. Edmunds said some dealers reported making 40 percent of the entire month of sales in the last week and that the site of research on GM vehicles has increased more than other brands.

“Normally, I would say that such an increase in the last week of December is just the end of a typically high seasonal pattern, but in the current environment I would say is dramatically good news,” David Tompkins, a senior analyst with Edmunds, said.

However, automakers are not optimistic about being a vehicle for recovery in sales of at least several months. Recent unemployment numbers show continued weakness in the economy and consumer confidence remains at historic lows.

“Consumer confidence, all factors that look, that’s No. 1 driver of the new vehicle business,” Mark LaNeve, GM’s Vice President for North American sales and marketing, said in a conference call last week.

However, Mr. LaNeve said, “you’ve got to believe that 2009 will be a better year than 2008 was.